Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand

Coronavirus cases currently stand at over 180,000 worldwide. Now more than ever, scientists and researchers are working together to accelerate research and inform policy to reduce this global pandemic.

The Imperial College London COVID-19 Response Team in collaboration with the WHO Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling have recently released a report detailing short and potential long-term policy.

The global impact of COVID-19 has been profound, and the public health threat it represents is the most serious seen in a respiratory virus since the 1918 H1N1 influenza pandemic. Here we present the results of epidemiological modelling which has informed policymaking in the UK and other countries in recent weeks.

In the absence of a COVID-19 vaccine, we assess the potential role of a number of public health measures– so-called non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs)- aimed at reducing contact rates in the population and thereby reducing transmission of the virus. In the results presented here, we apply a previously published microsimulation model to two countries: the UK (Great Britain specifically) and the US.

We conclude that the effectiveness of any one intervention in isolation is likely to be limited, requiring multiple interventions to be combined to have a substantial impact on transmission.

Read the full report here: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf